In this Thursday, Aug. 28, 2014 record photo, President Barack Obama in a James Brady Press Briefing Room of a White House in Washington.AP
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• The many divulgence quote about Obama’s domestic instincts
• Reid relapses with Koch amendment
• Roberts packs punch in initial debate
• Rubio teams with Romney unfamiliar process alums
• That’s a lot of breadsticks
THE MOST REVEALING QUOTE ABOUT OBAMA’S POLITICAL INSTINCTS President Obama said this weekend that fears of deleterious his party’s chances of holding a Senate were not behind his preference to desert skeleton to use executive movement to extend proxy freedom to vast numbers of bootleg immigrants. Instead, a boss told NBC News’ re-launched Sunday discuss show, that he waited for a opposite domestic reason. Obama pronounced he pulled behind given electorate altered their mind on a theme of immigration itself after observant a disharmony during a southern limit amid a swell of Central American minors seeking refuge in a U.S. “The law of a matter is, that a politics did change midsummer given of that problem,” Obama said, going on to censure Republicans for “exploit[ing] a charitable situation.” (Not that Democrats would ever do such a thing…) What a boss said, in essence, was that he is not doing what he knows to be right given people are profitable too many attention. Instead, Obama pronounced he will wait until electorate have calmed down lest his movement be rolled behind amid a open outcry. Or an even shorter version: “Of march it’s not about politics for Senate Democrats, it’s about politics for me.”
That explains it – Obama’s answer doesn’t seem to be an evasion, given a shy answer would have been to contend that a measures weren’t prepared or weren’t acceptable or anything else he could consider of. But instead, Obama was delineating between personification politics to pull a emanate itself as against to a somehow reduction eminent bureau of preserving his Senate majority, as if a dual weren’t connected. Of march a freedom movement would have harm Democrats, yet so did melancholy it for months on end. Eliminating a hazard temporarily will make things reduction bad, perhaps, yet it will also harm Democratic audience in pivotal precincts. What a mess. Obama going from a mass-amnesty, impeachment-bait magnitude to no magnitude during all is distant worse than if he had finished zero during all. How did he conduct to screw adult a one thing he was doing (other than a bajillion fundraisers) to try to assistance Democrats?
Obama, celebration of one – First, he waited and waffled. The politics of a emanate have been transparent for some-more than a month. Rather than ratcheting adult speculation, Team Obama could have sensitively started stepping on a executive movement story line instead of pumping it up. Second, Obama did not know his foes. He approaching Republicans to weird out and start drafting articles of impeachment, yet instead a GOP has finished what a boss has unsuccessful to do: keep a domestic concentration on a charge during hand. Third, and many importantly, Obama overestimated his joining to his allies. The boss might have once illusory himself peaceful to risk his bequest and one of his many cherished issues with an brazen move, yet flinched as he got closer. The outcome of this cycle is a same as many of Obama’s presidency: He is a celebration of one. Obama indispensable listeners to know that he was politically savvy, yet also wanted them to know he wouldn’t rubbish his astuteness on something so pretentious as saving his associate Democrats.
SUPER MODELS FOR GOP SENATE TAKEOVER
The prognosticators reset their dials after another spin of open polling on pivotal Senate races, display a timely change in preference of Republicans.
Odds in preference – Nate Silver: “The FiveThirtyEight foresee indication gives Republicans a 65.1 percent possibility of winning a Senate with a new polling added, identical to a 63.5 percent possibility that a prior foresee gave them on Friday…Republicans have prolonged been adored to win behind a seats in Montana, West Virginia and South Dakota, 3 states where Democratic incumbents have retired. …The GOP’s subsequent dual easiest targets are in Louisiana and Arkansas, where a Democratic incumbents Mary Landrieu and Mark Pryor are struggling with electorates that have incited many redder given their reign in bureau began…”
Marginal movement – NYT’s Upshot: “The Upshot’s Senate model, now gives a Republicans a 61 percent possibility of retaking a Senate, adult from 58 percent before a distillate of new data….The altogether outcome of a expected voter shade is to boost a G.O.P. domain in a inhabitant Senate renouned opinion by dual commission points. That’s frequency ideal for Democrats…”
A excellent nine? – Weekly Standard’s Jay Cost: “Republicans could good do improved than 6 seats. In fact, they could simply take 9 seats from a Democrats—in Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, North Carolina, South Dakota, and West Virginia. In any of these states, Republicans and independents consecrate a majority, and there is no transparent Democratic claimant edge. A loyal repeat of a 2010 call should therefore give a Republicans 54 seats—give or take—in a Senate.”
Dems losing a edge – WSJ: “Republican possibilities have non-stop adult leads in dual pivotal Senate races, according to new NBC News/Marist polls, brightening a party’s prospects for retaking control of a cover in a Nov elections. Rep. Tom Cotton (R., Ark.) has non-stop adult a five-point lead over Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor in Arkansas among expected voters, 45% to 40%. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell leads Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes by 8 points, 47% to 39%, in Kentucky. Libertarian David Patterson was during 8%…Republicans are doing good in red states, yet still trailing in blue states like Colorado, where obligatory Democratic Sen. Mark Udall leads Republican Rep. Cory Gardner by 6 points, 48% to 42%.”
[Unfavorable conditions – WaPo: “In Kentucky, Democratic Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes’s auspicious rating in May, according to NBC-Marist, was 39 percent, with usually 24 percent observation her unfavorably. Today, her auspicious rating is unvaried during 39 percent, yet her adverse rating his risen 17 points, to 41 percent… In other words, Grimes’s picture went from 15 points certain to dual points negative…. In May, Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor’s favorable/unfavorable separate was a flattering clever 50/35 among purebred electorate — and he led Cotton by 11 points. Today, it’s 44/42 among expected voters, and he trails Cotton by five. So from a plus-15 picture to plus-two.”]
REID RELAPSES WITH KOCH AMENDMENT
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid skeleton to put a Senate behind to work currently after a Aug recess by going behind to attacks on billionaire brothers Charles and David Koch, whom he declared “enemies of progress” during a discussion for immature appetite companies seeking supervision subsidies final week. Reid skeleton to reason a opinion on amending a Constitution to let Congress umpire domestic spending – a magnitude put brazen by exposed obligatory Sen. Mark Udall, D-Colo. The amendment is a domestic passed letter, yet has figured heavily in Reid and his congregation conflict ads. House Speaker John Boehner is out currently derisive Reid’s pierce and pursuit for movement on House-passed legislation to boost a saggy economy. In a Time op-ed Boehner lays out his stirring “American Solutions” apartment of legislation directed during pursuit creation, obscure a cost of vital and expanding opportunities.
Land rebuts – Michigan Republican Senate hopeful Terri Lynn Land is conflict behind during her opposition Rep. Gary Peters, D-Mich., for claiming she is contributing to wickedness given she is upheld by oilmen Charles and David Koch. From a ad: “Peters calls petcoke a ‘dangerous pollutant’… yet he has nineteen thousand dollars invested in a association that produces it… anticipating to distinction from pollution.”
Steyer strategy, too – Crossroads GPS is attacking Rep. Gary Peters, D-Mich., for what a organisation says is bearing his patron, green-energy billionaire Tom Steyer, over a jobs that would have been combined by a due Keystone Pipeline.
WITH YOUR SECOND CUP OF COFFEE…
Fifty years ago this week, during NBC’s “Monday Night during a Movies” display of a strong Bible story “David and Bathsheba” Americans met three-year-old Monique Corzilius, who starred in a domestic conflict ad distinct any that came before it. The mark from a discuss of President Lyndon Johnson that aired usually once, featured Corzilius counting daisy petals when a unexpected a voice of a mission-control announcer, sounding true out of “Dr. Strangelove,” counted down to a chief blast. The Johnson discuss had dual other spots, including one that’s even ickier featuring a lady revelation a small lady that Republican hopeful Barry Goldwater adored chief contrast that could “make we die.” Ad Age has a history of a spots that began a prolonged competition to a bottom for shock strategy and a promotion executives who dismissed a initial shot.
Got a TIP from a RIGHT or LEFT? Email FoxNewsFirst@FOXNEWS.COM
Real Clear Politics Averages
Obama Job Approval: Approve – 41.8 percent//Disapprove – 53.2 percent
Direction of Country: Right Direction – 25.4 percent//Wrong Track – 66.1 percent
Generic Congressional Ballot: Democrats – 42.5 percent// Republicans – 42 percent
— 57 days until Nov. 4 —
ROBERTS PACKS PUNCH IN FIRST DEBATE
Wichita [Kan.] Eagle: “Sen. Pat Roberts [R-Kan.] touted his knowledge while challenger Greg Orman claimed his autonomy as a dual met head-to-head in discuss during a Kansas State Fair… Orman has pronounced he skeleton to congress with a majority, whoever wins it, and hasn’t committed to picking a side if it’s a tie. Roberts pronounced that’s a large difference. He pronounced he’s a usually claimant who can ‘make a Republican majority, put Harry Reid out to pasture and get things done.’ And he doubtful Orman’s independence, observant Orman has pronounced he voted for President Obama in 2008 and donated income to Democrats, inluding Hillary Clinton and Reid. ‘He is not (independent), he is magnanimous Democrat by philosophy,’ Roberts said. Orman shot behind that he has donated to politicians in both parties and has been a Republican, a Democrat and an independent.”
GARDNER, UDALL FIGHT OVER OBAMACARE
KDVR: “Republican U.S. Senate claimant Cory Gardner took any eventuality to tie Democratic Sen. Mark Udall to President Obama and his opinion for a Affordable Care Act during their initial discuss Saturday night… ‘When we betrothed people, ‘If we like your health caring devise we can keep it,’ when did we comprehend that was a lie?’ Gardner continued… When it was Udall’s turn, he cited Gardner’s votes to defund Planned Parenthood, shorten entrance to birth control and to anathema abortion. ‘How can women and families trust we not to meddle with their personal health decisions?’ Udall asked. Gardner responded by observant he looked brazen to formulating jobs for women.”
PICK SIX: SAFE BETS AND INSURANCE POLICIES
Republicans need to advantage 6 seats to take control of a Senate. Which 6 Democrat-held seats are a many vulnerable? Based off of your e-mails and tweets, here is a accord among Fox News First readers : Arkansas (13.7%), Montana (12.6%), West Virginia (11.8%), Louisiana (11.5%), South Dakota (10.4%) and North Carolina (9.5%). Reader Michael Scott of Wentzville, Mo., sees Montana, West Virginia and South Dakota as “sure fires” yet urges his associate readers to keep their eyes on Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and Colorado.
Share your tip 6 picks. Email them – usually your tip six, greatfully – to FOXNEWSFIRST@FOXNEWS.COM or twitter @cstirewalt.
CRUZ PITCHES FOR GARCIA IN THE GRANITE STATE
WMUR: “…Sen. Ted Cruz [R-Texas] spoke during a convene Sunday in Nashua [N.H.] for state Rep. Marilinda Garcia, usually dual days before she competes in a Republican primary for a 2nd Congressional District. Cruz spoke about immigration, health caring and fortifying a Constitution…One of Garcia’s dual opponents, Gary Lambert, pronounced a publicity from Cruz means little.’ No matter what Sen. Cruz might say, it’s transparent what Rep. Garcia has said. She wants a pathway to citizenship. She pronounced that in a sponsored fortitude with a National Hispanic Caucus of State Legislators,’ Lambert said.’’’
RUBIO TEAMS WITH ROMNEY FOREIGN POLICY ALUMS
Mitt Romney nudged a doorway roughly sealed on a third presidential bid in his coming on “Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace” observant “I’m not running. I’m not formulation on running” – yet Romney stopped brief of Shermanesque absolutism. But Romney’s unfamiliar process group is using and in hunt of a claimant to back. The Daily Beast reports on a John Hay Initiative that is gearing adult for a initial high-profile eventuality with a Sept. 17 discuss from Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla.
“I’ll have some-more clarity on [a intensity presidential run] after this midterm, given we can guarantee we this, a one place where we will not be means to [advance his agenda] from is a Senate that is still run by Harry Reid that allows no votes on anything of piece or importance.” – Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., on “Face a Nation”
PAUL MAKING PLAY IN PURPLE VIRGINIA
WaPo: “Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) skeleton to assistance Republicans in a pitch state of Virginia fill celebration coffers during a fundraiser this month. The intensity presidential contender will title a cooking in Falls Church on Sept. 24 to advantage a Republican Party of Virginia. The $95-a-head dinner, during 7 p.m. during a Marriott Fairview Park, comes dual months after Paul seemed in Arlington during a span of events meant to deliver him to business leaders and grassroots activists in a state that has usually recently turn vicious to presidential hopefuls.”
THAT’S A LOT OF BREADSTICKS
If we consider of “all-you-can-eat” as some-more of a lifestyle than a dining option, afterwards squeeze your elastic pants and conduct for an Olive Garden today. USA Today reports a grill sequence “will announce skeleton for it’s first-ever ‘Never Ending Pasta Pass’—which for $100, gives a hilt a right to devour all of a pasta, salad, bread and Coca-Cola branded soothing drinks that they can things down for 7 weeks.” You’d improved precipitate if you’re meddlesome given usually 1,000 passes will be available, and we substantially won’t be doing a lot hurrying in a subsequent 49 days if you’re maxing out on Alfredo sauce.
Chris Stirewalt is digital politics editor for Fox News. Want FOX News First in your inbox any day? Sign adult here.
Chris Stirewalt assimilated Fox News Channel (FNC) in Jul of 2010 and serves as digital politics editor formed in Washington, D.C. Additionally, he authors a daily “Fox News First” domestic news note and hosts “Power Play,” a underline video series, on FoxNews.com. Stirewalt creates visit appearances on a network, including “The Kelly File,” “Special Report with Bret Baier,” and “Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace.” He also provides consultant domestic research for Fox News coverage of state, congressional and presidential elections.