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Colin Kaepernick’s anticipation impact on a 49ers offense

Colin Kaepernick’s anticipation impact on a 49ers offense


The San Francisco 49ers have done a change during starting quarterback as conduct manager Chip Kelly named Colin Kaepernick his starter for Week 6. The moves comes after an ineffectual five-game army for Blaine Gabbert where his flitting yards per diversion (178) and passer rating (69.6) both arrange 30th among NFL starters.

Kaepernick was once an effective starting quarterback, with his best deteriorate entrance in 2013 where he posted a 21-8 touchdown to interception ratio and rushed for an additional 524 yards. He started 16 games that deteriorate and finished as a QB11 in fantasy. Since then, however, a highway has been most worse for Kaepernick. His 2015 deteriorate in sold was a disaster. The 49ers scored a measly 13.6 points per diversion underneath Kaepernick final deteriorate and he eventually mislaid his hold on a starting job, amid ineffectual play and injuries, to Blaine Gabbert. Receivers with determined resumes like Michael Crabtree, Steve Johnson and Torrey Smith all saw their prolongation shrivel underneath Kaepernick from 2014 to 2015.


The doubt for his 2016 opinion will wholly revolve around how he meshes with new conduct manager Chip Kelly and a new descent system. Kelly became obvious for pumping adult a stats of his descent players during his years in Philadelphia. We all remember Nick Foles’ furious outlier 2013 deteriorate where he threw 27 touchdowns to usually dual interceptions and averaged 20 expectation points per game, though even Mark Sanchez had his best year underneath Kelly’s watch in service duties. He averaged roughly 15 points per diversion in 2014.

Simply put, for expectation purposes, this offense is distinct any other that Colin Kaepernick has played in before. Despite his muted past few season, there’s intensity for him to post prolific weeks as a quarterback pennon in fantasy. Chip Kelly’s teams in Philadelphia ranked 13th (2013), 1st (2014) and 2nd (2015) in plays run among NFL offenses. In that same span, a 49ers ranked 31st (2013), 21st (2014) and 30th (2015) in plays run. On normal a final 3 years streamer into 2016, Kelly’s teams ran 114 some-more plays per deteriorate than a 2013 to 2015 49ers.

Chip Kelly has stayed loyal to form this deteriorate as a 49ers arrange 12th in descent plays run by a initial 5 weeks. San Francisco also has a lowest time between snaps (28.5 seconds) in a NFL this season. Kelly wants his teams to play fast, that creates some-more opportunities and a rising waves for his ability position players.

Playing in an offense with this kind of volume has a certain outcome on a quarterback’s expectation production, even if they aren’t personification well. In Gabbert’s diversion opposite a Panthers when he finished 47.2 percent of his passes, he scored 20.72 expectation points. In his Week 5 detriment to a Cardinals that got him benched, Gabbert scored 19.48 points. Both of those games were buoyed by Gabbert scoring a rushing touchdown, and we know that Kaepernick has some-more upside as a rusher.


Kelly’s offense is expected on correctness and timing-based stroke flitting on channel routes, something that Kaepernick has always struggled with (59 percent career execution rate). However, Kelly has never had a passer with Kaepernick’s rushing upside and that was a fold that his offenses employed to a primitive grade behind in his days during Oregon. At slightest from that perspective, a matrimony promises to be interesting.

As mentioned, a prolongation of important pass-catching weapons took a drop when Kaepernick started struggling from 2014 to 2015. That is still in a operation of outcomes, generally for a actor like Jeremy Kerley who essentially runs brief routes. Kerely now owns a 30 percent share of a group targets and is one gait for 972 receiving yards. Both total are expected take a with Kaepernick and his miss of anticipation.

However, we can design Kaepernick to urge a 49ers low flitting game, that was a tack of Chip Kelly’s 2013 offense though Blaine Gabbert simply can't unlock. Per a NFL’s Next Gen Stats package, Gabbert boasts a 39.8 passer rating on passes roving 20-plus yards in a air, completing usually 3 of 17 attempts. To his credit, Kaepernick posted an 85.7 passer rating on 20-plus atmosphere yard passes in his awful 2015 season. This competence meant some-more opportunities for low hazard Torrey Smith, who has usually 9 catches by 5 games.


Kaepernick’s speed as a curtain should also assistance emanate room and opportunities to run from a review choice for Carlos Hyde. The Ohio State product operated out of this character of complement in his years in college with Braxton Miller underneath center. This is a dimension Chip Kelly is positively looking brazen to unlocking in his offense, that already boasted one of a NFL’s rushing games in 2013 and 2014. Hyde already leads a NFL in rushing touchdowns and this pierce should usually assistance him.

While a insertion of Colin Kaepernick into a starting lineup is doubtful to save a 49ers offense that ranks passed final in yards per play, or make vital waves in fantasy, there will positively be some impact. Torrey Smith and Carlos Hyde should mount to somewhat advantage from a move, while players like Jeremy Kerley competence remove some dash off a value they established. Colin Kaepernick himself is also in position to post peculiarity quarterback streaming abilities interjection to a volume of this offense and his possess rushing ability. Either way, change was required for a 49ers and Kaepernick will get than possibility to revitalise his floundering on-field NFL career.

Matt Harmon is an associate expectation writer/editor for NFL.com, and a creator of #ReceptionPerception, who we can follow on Twitter @MattHarmon_BYB or like on Facebook.

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