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A 10 Chart Look At The State of The U.S. Labor Market

A 10 Chart Look At The State of The U.S. Labor Market

Friday’s top-line practice series came in during +248K, about 38K above what analysts were expecting.

The news led some Wall Street economists to tag it “the ideal practice report.”

Was it?  Here’s a examination of a labor market in 10 charts.

Monthly Growth in Jobs

Friday’s net new jobs series of +248K creates it 9 months out of a past 12 of above-200K jobs.  The expansion in a 3Q was one of a best in a prolonged time, representing usually a slight dump from a really clever Q2 2014 numbers (gray plane lines paint a normal expansion for a given quarter).

MM Employment Growth labor market

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Labor marketplace – Year over Year Growth in Jobs

The monthly jobs numbers are a many mostly quoted, though generally are reduction demonstrative of broad mercantile trends.  Here’s a demeanour during a year-over-year (Y/Y) jobs expansion figures.

In September, Y/Y jobs expansion accelerated to 1.9%, shutting in on a 2% threshold.

The acceleration belays some analysts’ concerns that a labor marketplace was prepared to decelerate.  In fact, a labor marketplace troughed in Feb 2014 during 1.6%, and has given accelerated via a residue of 2014.

2 YY Growth in Employment labor market

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3 Zoomed YY Employment Growth labor market

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Labor marketplace  – How Does a Current Employment Situation Compare to Past Business Cycles?

The M/M and Y/Y practice expansion sum desire a question: How does a stream liberation review to past recoveries?

The following striking has that comparison.

Overall, a stream liberation that began in 2008 is a slowest in during slightest a past 60 years.

4 Total Employment Change from Peak, 1948 to Today

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Worker Earnings

An oft-discussed aspect of a stream liberation is a assuage condition of salary growth.  The emanate is that during this indicate of a mercantile liberation salary expansion should be closer to 3% Y/Y expansion as against to a stream 2%.

Interesting, September’s numbers supposing no justification of salary expansion expanding over 2% anytime soon.

5 Average Hourly Earnings, 2007 to 2014

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Part-time Employment

The stream liberation has been diseased by many measures, including part-time employment.

6 Employed Part-Time for Economic Reasons

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The following looks during part-time practice by business cycle.  Overall, nonetheless part-time practice given Jan 2008 declined to 45% in Sep from 48% in August, it’s still 45%.  That’s 45% some-more part-time workers than there were in Jan 2008!

Full-time Employment

In tie with a part-time practice numbers is a full-time picture.

The full-time practice design is most reduction certain than other indicators, with a sum count of full-time workers still about 1% fewer than there were in Jan 2008.  That’s 6 1/2 years and full-time employees are still subsequent where they were during a housing peak.

On a one palm this positively points to a intensity for lots of room to grow.

On a other hand, this should poise some analysts to doubt either a U.S. economy has left by some constructional changes, such as a change to part-time practice given of attribution incentives supposing by Obamacare.

7 Full-time Employment Change by Business Cycle

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Unemployment Rate

The following striking check a stagnation rate by mercantile cycle.

Overall, nonetheless a stagnation rate declined to 5.9%, a lowest turn given Jul 2008, a stream liberation is still one of a slowest on record, besting usually a 1974 liberation during this point.

In terms of where a unemployment rate is relations to where it was in a prior peak, a stagnation rate is still 20% aloft than where it was in Jan 2008.

8 Unemployment Rate by Economic Cycle

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Labor Force Participation Rate

The subsequent striking inspects labor force appearance by mercantile cycle.

Overall, a burst in a “Not in a Labor Force” series from Aug to Sep explains a better-than-expected stagnation rate.

The series of people not in a labor force grows naturally with a aging and expanding of a race base.

The emanate is that it is, according to some, flourishing too fast.

If a fast boost in people not in a workforce is due to parents choosing to spend time with children, afterwards that’s substantially a good thing for a destiny of a American workforce.

On a other hand, if it’s people unable to find work, or simply not confident with a accessible work, afterwards that’s a opposite signal.

So far, a statistics indicate to some of both.

9 Not in a Labor Force

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Employment by Firm Size

The final of a 10 graphics is pursuit expansion by organisation size.

The following is a ADP numbers.

Overall, as indicated, tiny and middle sized businesses have generally been on a decelerating trend for fourth months now, while vast firms are accelerating hiring.

Economy-watchers and investors will positively need to compensate courtesy to this trend and cruise a consequences should this trend continue.

10 Job gains by organisation size.fw

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